Trump interferes in the Argentine elections with a ransom of 20,000 million for Milei and threats if they do not vote for him

Despite criticism from farmers and “America First” supporters, Trump has insisted on the need to “save” Argentina… as long as Milei’s party wins the legislative elections next Sunday. According to Trump, the Argentine president is trying to remedy the mistakes “made for a hundred years” and only trusts him. If his party, La Libertad Avanza, does not obtain a sufficient majority for Congress and the Senate to stop blocking the presidential measures, the aid will evaporate.

“Argentina is dying”Donald Trump insisted this Monday, “if I can help prevent it, I will, but let’s not say that they are doing well… they are simply dying well.” Furthermore, he stressed his personal sympathy for Javier Miley. It must be remembered that on December 4, 2024, the Steve Bannonarchitect and theoretical leader of the MAGA movement, pointed out Milei in the context of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) as the great hope for South America.

“If Milei fails to execute his plan, the entire Latin American movement is in danger,” Bannon stated then, to the applause of the Argentine public. Trump’s measures go in that direction and in the White House there is the conviction that this highly personalized support will trigger Milei at the polls after a few months of almost absolute equality in the polls with the Peronists.

Slight advantage for La Libertad Avanza

In Argentina, as in Spain, the law prohibits publishing electoral polls in the week before the elections, so there is no way to evaluate whether, in fact, Trump’s support has been decisive or not. When Milei visited Washington, his party was close to 40% on average in the polls, compared to 35% of the Peronists, gathered in Fuerza Patria. However, the memory of the Buenos Aires government elections, where the Peronists won comfortably, is still too recent.

Both sides enter the elections in a delicate situation. The Peronists still carry the corruption scandals from the time of the Kirchners and Alberto Fernandezfigures from which they do not distance themselves sufficiently. The Liberals, for their part, are in the midst of a cabinet change, led by the resignation of the foreign minister, Gerardo Wertheinin the face of the growing unpopularity of the government. While 42.4% of Argentines approve of Milei’s management, 53.7% reject it.

Anarcholiberalism’s own corruption scandals, led by those of the president’s sister, have had a lot to do with this. Karina Mileiwhich some audios link to a bribery network in the National Disability Agency. Karina, in addition to being the president’s sister, is his right-hand woman and secretary. Of course, the Casa Rosada denies everything and blames it on a leftist conspiracy.

The fact that the Argentine economy is not taking off has also had an influence. Milei’s 2023 campaign was based on political cleansing and economic regeneration. The Argentines could forgive mistakes in the first if it compensated them in the second, but it is not clear that this is the case. Argentina’s “country risk”, that is, the markets’ estimate of its ability to repay the state debt, reached 1,075 basis points this October, when in January, coinciding with Trump’s arrival to power, it had dropped to 560.

Inflation rises, GDP falls

It is not the only macroeconomic indicator that has gone wrong for the Milei government. Although public debt has fallen spectacularly from 2024 to 2025, it remains at higher levels than in 2021. GDP rose in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in two years, but fell again in the second quarter. Inflation rose 2.1% in September, which represents an accumulated annual rate of 22% and a year-on-year variation of 31.8%. Finally, unemployment reached a rate of 7.9% in the first quarter, the highest figure since the end of the pandemic.

Milei’s supporters insist that the road is long and that it will be longer without the support of Parliament. Right now, the opposition has a solid majority: the Peronists have 107 of the 257 seats, the “dialoguistas”, who have sometimes supported Milei’s measures, are at 69, while the ruling party of La Libertad Avanza and its allies remain at 85, of which only 36 belong to the presidential party.

It must be taken into account that Parliament is partially renewed every two years: part in the presidential elections and another in the legislative elections. To achieve a comfortable majority, Milei would have to achieve an exorbitant result.

In the United States, of course, they are for the work, although, as is often the case with the Trump Administration, coordination is not their strong suit. Scott BessantSecretary of the Treasury, reaffirmed this Wednesday his country’s commitment to Milei, a commitment that he described as “crucial action”… just one day after the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollinsdeclared that the purchase of Argentine meat will be scarce, because “there is a foot-and-mouth problem.” Foot and mouth disease is a highly contagious viral disease that not only affects cows, but also sheep, goats and pigs.

Milei’s own government had to come out to deny Rollins and it remains to be seen the reaction of the Argentine countryside, still today one of its main sources of economic income. In an election where every vote counts, Trump’s condescending statements and Rollins’ offensives could cost Milei dearly. The point is to see if, on the scale, the praise balances. On Sunday we will clear up doubts.