Türkiye’s warnings and the departure of Turkish forces from Cyprus policy

Although it is a country that enjoys international recognition only from Türkiye, the presidential elections that the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus witnessed imposed itself on public opinion. Follow up on its facts and analyze its results.

The electoral battle was not between two main candidates, and others who ran alongside them, as much as it was a fierce competition between two opposing projects, determining the fate of the northern part of the island of Cyprus for the coming period.

The outgoing president, Arsene Tatar, who is close to Ankara, was naturally adopting the two-state solution as the only solution to get out of the island’s crisis.

While his competitor, the Republican Party candidate, Tufan Erhurman, came from a political bloc that believes that the solution is federalism and reintegration with the Greek Cypriots.

The result of the elections was against Ankara’s liking, as Erhorman won by more than 60%, while some considered it a political blow to Turkey, which has complete control over the northern part of the island and controls its joints and parts. Despite this, it allowed the holding of fair and transparent elections that brought in a president who was not in agreement – even on the surface – with its policies and strategic directions for the Republic of Northern Cyprus, and for the entire island in general.

Hence the controversy that Türkiye witnessed in the first hours following the announcement of the first results. While the controversy – analysis and commentary on the scene – extended to the future of the Turkish forces on the island, as some considered it a strategic earthquake in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Internal Turkish controversy

Erhorman’s victory sparked controversy within Türkiye, between people welcoming the results of the ballot boxes and demands to cancel those results.

The official authority immediately announced its welcome of the election results, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on his account on the “X” platform, congratulating Erhurman on the victory, and stressing that these elections: “once again prove the democratic maturity of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and reflect the will of the Turkish Cypriots at the ballot boxes.”

Erdogan did not fail to emphasize that his country will continue to “defend the sovereign rights and interests of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus side by side with the Turkish Cypriots on every platform.”

In parallel, the head of the National Movement Party, Devlet Bahceli, a partner in the ruling coalition, rejected the results, calling on Parliament (which is controlled by a majority that supports the two-state solution) not to rely on what the ballot boxes produced and to cancel the results, in addition to issuing an immediate decision to merge with Turkey, and for Northern Cyprus to become the 82nd state.

But Bahceli returned as if to retract his previous words and said: “Before the elections, there were many discussions on television channels about federalism or the two-state solution. That is why I immediately issued a statement, because I believed that the tiny spark of federalism should not turn into a burning fire when a candidate advocating the idea of ​​federalism wins.”

He added that accepting a one-state solution in Cyprus would stimulate “the forces in Syria that seek to establish a federal union.”

Policies of the president-elect

The behavior of the president-elect, Erhurman, added a state of reassurance in Ankara. In his first statement following the announcement of the preliminary results, he said: “I will carry out my foreign policy duties in close consultation with the Republic of Turkey. There is no need for worry or doubt. All foreign policy affairs will, of course, be managed in cooperation with Turkey.”

With this haste on his part, he wanted to cut off the words of every skeptic, and not leave the arena to gossip, which would allow the relationship between him and Ankara to be disturbed, as he – the former Prime Minister – realizes that the keys to the lives of the Turkish Cypriots are actually in the hands of Turkey. The matter is not limited to security and defense affairs, but rather extends to food, water, education… etc., as Turkey is the lung through which the Turkish Cypriots breathe.

For example, within the framework of the “Presidential Annual Program 2025” prepared by the Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance, it was announced that 8.5 billion Turkish liras would be allocated to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, with an additional 4 billion Turkish liras allocated to the loans granted.

For this reason, Erhorman reaffirmed – during the presidential handover ceremony – the principles of his policy, the most important of which are the following:

• Emphasizing that the Turkish Cypriot people are one of the two equal founding partners on this island, and a partner in everything that exists on and around the island.
• He stressed that it is not possible to make decisions on the island without the will of the Turkish Cypriot people, in areas such as security, energy, hydrocarbons, maritime matters, trade routes and EU citizenship.
• He said that it is not possible to reach a solution, lasting peace and stability on the island by ignoring the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey, the guarantor state in the region, and violating their rights and powers.
• He stressed that the Republic of Turkey is the most important supporter of Turkish Cypriots in their struggle to protect sovereign rights.
• He recalled the continuation of consultations with Türkiye, as was the case with the previous presidency during the era of Arsene Tatar.

Erhurman was keen to mention these and other points, in the presence of Turkish Vice President, Cevdet Yilmaz, who was participating in the ceremony, in what was considered a clear and frank message of reassurance to Turkey, especially the ruling coalition, led by the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement.

It is also a message to the Turkish Cypriot interior, especially the voices extremely hostile to Turkey, which during the past months demanded the expulsion of the Turkish ambassador and the departure of the Turkish forces!

Cyprus.. a hotbed of conflict

All indications indicate that the Cypriot island, both its Turkish and Greek sides, is a hotbed of conflict forming in the eastern Mediterranean, where its geostrategic importance was clearly demonstrated during the two-year Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, and the associated military operations against Lebanon and Iran.

The southern part of the “Greek” island turned into an important logistical support base for the Israeli forces, through its airports and bases, which it opened for the supporting American and European forces, or through the British bases present on the island.

Britain maintains “sovereign areas” completely under its control, following Cyprus’ independence in 1960. These areas cover an area of ​​256 square kilometers, equivalent to about 3% of the island’s area, and include two separate regions in the south of the country: “Dekelia” and “Akrotiri.”

The southern part of the island also opened its ports to receive French and German ships. This American-European military buildup was employed to provide intelligence and military services to Tel Aviv.

But Israel was not satisfied with that, but rather strengthened its military presence on the island, as it handed over to the Greek Cypriot administration in the southern part the “Barak MX” air defense system, which can intercept drones and fighter aircraft, in addition to winged missiles within a range of 150 kilometers, that is, covering southern Türkiye.

Ankara was not absent from these developments, as it also sought to strengthen its military presence on the island.

Last August, Major General Sabahattin Klinç, commander of the Turkish forces in Northern Cyprus, was promoted from the rank of major general to the rank of lieutenant general, in an unusual precedent, as it has been the custom since 2019 for the commander of the forces to hold the rank of major general.

The explanation for the reasons was said to be a prelude to transforming the “peacekeeping” forces present on the island into an integrated army, as the number of Turkish forces operating on the island is expected to increase from 50,000 to 100,000 soldiers.

The Ministry of Defense also continues to modernize the Turkish forces present in Northern Cyprus, which previously consisted of a limited number of artillery brigades, air defense units, and engineering battalions, and now includes several legions, in addition to land, air, naval, logistical and engineering elements, electronic warfare, and other formations.

In parallel, expansion work has begun on the naval base in Marmaris-Aksaz (inside Turkey), which will provide support to the forces present in Northern Cyprus, where a new naval base is being built.

Departure of Turkish forces

This previous display of mutual military reinforcements on the Turkish and Greek parts of the island makes talk about the possibility of the election of Erhurman affecting the continued presence of Turkish forces a fantasy.

The strategic assessments in Ankara give the Israeli, American and European movements in the Greek part of the island the utmost importance, and classify them as high-level risks that must be prepared for and dealt with seriously.

In a televised interview with a Turkish channel, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Greek Cypriots against amassing weapons, which could tempt them to attack Turkish forces on the island. He said: “If they commit any crazy act, the weapons are our business. These people have never fought a war. They should not even think about these matters.”

So, the situation on the island will remain as it is until further notice, and the three guarantor countries: (Turkey – Britain – Greece) are strengthening their military presence in an unprecedented manner, and the geostrategic location that the Cypriot island occupies in the eastern Mediterranean does not force any forces present there to leave, but rather pushes them to cling to survival at all costs.