Venezuela’s cards to defend itself against the US if Trump attacks

However, these are minor operations to justify the military deployment that includes around 10,000 troops, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, warships, a nuclear-powered submarine, F-35B fighters and MH-6 and MH-60 helicopters, which have also carried out flights over Venezuelan territorial waters.

The signaling of Nicolas Maduro and the rest of the Chavista leadership as ringleaders of drug trafficking to the United States and the announcement of the authorization of operations within Venezuela have led world leaders and experts to consider that these actions are the opening of a confrontation with the military and paramilitaries of the Latin American country, although no figure in the US executive branch explicitly confirms it.

US senator Rick Scott He assured in an interview for the CBS network that Maduro “has his days numbered” and that it would be better for him to “go to Russia or China”, reinforcing the message that places the Venezuelan president as the main objective of the North American strategy, attacking key positions and figures in drug trafficking. But he refused to confirm plans for an invasion.

In any case, Maduro has addressed the world to reject what he has labeled in English as crazy war (crazy war) and a coup d’état against him.

In recent statements he stressed that any attempted invasion would face “millions of men and women with rifles”reaching more than eight million, according to Maduro himself. With these statements he made special reference to the country’s militias, paramilitary forces with irregular training and few conditions for entry and stay, which he has ordered to activate over the last few weeks.

Due to the nature of this force, it is difficult to verify how close it is to the officially reported participation figures, but the truth is that they have the same Russian AK-103 rifles that the army uses, as well as the FAL and FN-30. A resident of a popular area near the Venezuelan capital affirms that the military exercises reveal the level of the militiamen.

“It’s obvious that they don’t know how to use FALs,” he comments.

The regime’s characteristic opacity extends to Maduro’s announcement about the Igla-S infrared-guided missiles, designed for air defense, of which he says he has more than 5,000. These would add to the country’s air defense, made up largely of equipment purchased from Russia and which is reported to include two BUK-M2 mobile anti-aircraft systems and two S-300 units, designed to confront ballistic missiles and aviation and which, according to a source familiar with the Venezuelan military arsenal, “they could reach the Southern Command bases in Curacao and Aruba if they are not detected quickly”as well as the S-125 Pechora surface-to-air missile systems and about 300 units of ZU-23-2, twin towed anti-aircraft automatic cannons from Soviet times.

Despite a certain degree of obsolescence, this combination of equipment represents a threat that American pilots cannot ignore. In addition, the Russian P-18-2 and Chinese JYL-1 radar systems, of which Venezuela has three, can make a difference by detecting attacks in key points of the capital and in some other strategic point, to which artillery such as howitzers, rocket launchers and mortars can be moved.

Like most of the weapons of the Venezuelan armed forces, it is difficult to know how many of these systems are operational after years of negligence and lack of maintenance, in a context of sanctions that prevent obtaining spare parts for their mechanisms and widespread corruption; The leadership of the military forces has been more dedicated to controlling trade in various economic sectors and internal repression than to preparing for war and territorial defense.

However, several sources who declare on condition of anonymity highlight the possibility that the training was dedicated to the tactics of guerrillas, such as the dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN); Nor do they dare to rule out their direct participation in a hypothetical armed confrontation.

One of the main problems within the armed forces, which has between 100,000 and 150,000 troops and around 8,000 reservists, according to various reports, is motivation and low morale among the troops. Apart from the purges that have taken place since 2019, the economic situation chokes the lowest-ranking military personnel, with monthly salaries that rarely reach 30 euros. To the point that they sell weapons and military equipment to criminal and terrorist groups and even abandon their positions to escape to other countries in search of other opportunities.

The opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has sought support from the military for its government transition plan, but any actual assistance from the military has been kept secret until now.

“Several soldiers want to join her, but they don’t know who to turn to, and many who have tried have ended up in prison, accused of treason,” says a man linked to opposition groups. It also stands out that Russia and Cuba have sent advisors on military matters, although their tasks focus more on intelligence and the internal control of a military body completely politicized in favor of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela.

This area of ​​lack of confidence and opportunities extends to aviation, which has suffered for years from a lack of trained pilots and the means to maintain its aircraft.

Sukquhoi fighters

According to several reports, they have 24 Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighters, purchased before the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013, which can carry anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, as well as other types of bombs, although various open source investigations indicate that between three and 16 of these may not be operational; It is estimated that active combat aircraft number around fifty, including 23 units of the Chinese K-8W Karakorum model.

Curiously, Venezuela has six F-5s and four F-16s, of which two could be seen flying in the Caribbean in September, although it is believed that US sanctions have prevented the obtaining of spare parts that would allow the operation of all the units, which also represent fourth-generation aircraft compared to the fifth-generation US F-35s.

Helicopters such as the Russian Mi-17 and transport aircraft are a diverse sample in terms of their origin: the US, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and even the former Soviet Union, making pilot training even more difficult.

However, a person close to aviation declares that “the most dangerous factor that Venezuela has” are the modeled drones such as the Iranian Mohajer and Shahed, whose producers have sent technicians to the country to train Venezuelan personnel in construction and internal production, as well as in asymmetric warfare tactics.

“In Ukraine we saw how drones loaded with missiles work, and although Venezuela does not have as large a number as Russia and it has been shown that the American Patriot systems can stop them,” they represent the greatest concern for the Americans due to the risk that they will overload their detection systems and “hit anything,” he says, adding that their first targets would be “the drone and missile production factories, like one in Maracay.”

Regarding Venezuela’s capabilities in its territorial waters, the deployment of several Iranian-made Peykaap III fast attack boats stands out. Of the six Lupo-class frigates, acquired in the 1970s, one remains operational, as well as one of the two German Type 209 diesel/electric attack submarines. In research pages from open sources, 25 patrol vessels, three coastal vessels and five amphibious ships are counted as the rest of the maritime offensive capacity of the Chavista regime.