War or negotiations…which two scenarios will Washington and Tehran go for? | news

The issue of negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear file returns to the forefront of international events, amidst not optimistic expectations from analysts and observers, especially in light of the Iranian and American parties’ adherence to their position of refusing to make any concessions that would remove the obstacles that prevent reaching an agreement.

Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s statement to Al Jazeera suggested the possibility of opening the door to diplomacy in the nuclear file, some believe that obstacles still exist.

As Dr. Ibrahim Freihat, professor of international conflicts at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, says to the “Beyond the News” program, the “just solution” that Araqchi spoke about is not seen by Washington as Tehran sees it.

Araqchi expressed his country’s readiness to negotiate its nuclear program, provided that Washington is prepared for “fair and equitable” negotiations that guarantee everyone’s interests.

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera as part of the “The Interview” program, which will be broadcast tomorrow evening, Sunday, Araqchi saw that there is a possibility of reaching a fair agreement, but Washington has set impossible and unacceptable conditions.

Araqchi’s statements were interpreted by former US State Department official Dr. Thomas Warrick as showing Tehran’s adherence to its position of rejecting US conditions related to halting uranium enrichment and abandoning any path that could lead to it obtaining nuclear weapons.

In light of this position, Warrick believes – in his interventions on the Beyond the News program – that there is no room for optimism about the possibility of Washington and Tehran reaching an understanding.

For its part, Iran confirms that it is always open to negotiations regarding its nuclear program, and accuses the American side of not having serious intentions, which was stressed by Ali Akbar Darini, a researcher specializing in American studies, in his speech to the episode (11/1/2025) of the “Beyond the News” program, in which he said that US President Donald Trump is looking for Iran’s surrender and not an agreement with it.

Darini does not express optimism about the negotiations between Washington and Tehran as long as the American side insists – according to him – on depriving Iran of the uranium enrichment process.

Scenarios

In light of each party’s adherence to its position, analysts say that all scenarios remain open, most notably the military option, which was indicated by the professor of international conflicts at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, Dr. Ibrahim Freihat, who believes that the file is heading toward escalation unless other options are available, such as Russia intervening as a mediator, and Tehran providing economic incentives to the American administration, in addition to applying the Libyan model in Iran.

The military option is one of the scenarios proposed, according to Dr. Warrick, “but not in the near future,” expecting the upcoming strikes to be more severe than those Tehran was subjected to during the 12-day war with Israel.

But the researcher specializing in American studies, Darini, ruled out a military solution, and said that this scenario would not be proposed by the United States and Israel, and that “it is in the world’s interest to avoid a major escalation that might lead to a regional conflict.”

The Sultanate of Oman – which hosted several rounds of talks between Washington and Tehran before suspending them following the Israeli and American attack last June – urged the two countries to resume dialogue.

Western countries and Israel accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, but Tehran strongly denies such ambitions, and confirms that it is developing nuclear technology for civilian purposes.