Donald Trump trended on X after “Trump is dead” flooded the platform with 95 000+ posts.
The Personal View, after forecasting Trump’s 2016 win (Feb ’16) and pointing to a 2024 run (“Donald Trump for President in 2024?”, Oct ’23), has long argued: if Trump serves a 2nd term, the greater risk is that he may not survive it.
On presidential fragility: William McKinley was assassinated in 1901. Trump’s first and now second terms are marked by extreme polarisation and twin risks, assassination and health. We’ve flagged this risk since 2016.
In “McKinley vs. Trump – The Parallels Are Staggering,” I show how two presidents, 125 years apart, mirror each other in protectionism, nationalism, disruption, and structural change. From McKinley’s tariffs/electrification to Trump’s trade wars/tech upheaval, the echoes are clear: both reshaped their parties, elevated economic nationalism, and presided over structural overhaul.
McKinley vs Trump – The Parallels Are Staggering
The Personal View has long argued that the 2015 – 2033 period echoes the 1895 – 1913 era; both shaped by transformation, disruption, innovation, and deep structural change.
At the center of each era? Two remarkably aligned presidents:
William McKinley (1897 – 1901) and Donald Trump (2017 – 2021, 2025+)Here’s why the parallels matter – for politics, markets, and investors:
1. Trade Protectionism
McKinley’s Dingley Tariff raised duties to a record 52%. Trump’s trade war imposed 25%+ tariffs (especially on China), with a 10% universal tariff proposed for 2025.
2. Economic Nationalism
Both emphasised domestic production, strategic autonomy, and correcting trade imbalances.
3. Technological Disruption
McKinley had electrification and industrial expansion.
Trump’s era mirrors this with AI, EVs, and the disruptive rise of Musk (the modern Ford?).4. Isolationist Tendencies
McKinley prioritised national interest.
Trump pulled the US from global pacts like the Paris Accord, WHO, and TPP.5. Structural Shifts
The Panic of 1907 led to the birth of the Federal Reserve.
Post-2020 liquidity may trigger a financial system reset of its own.6. Threats to Power
McKinley was assassinated.
Trump survived multiple attempts, including the 2024 shooting at a rally.7. Party Recalibration
Both reshaped the Republican Party around tariffs, nationalism, strong executive leadership, and business-first policies.
Implications?
- Continued support for oil, gas, gold, copper, and agriculture.
- In a fragmented world order (like the post-McKinley colonial period), expect increased defense exposure, risk premiums, and value in non-correlated assets (real assets, volatility hedges, etc).
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