The National Meteorological Service (SMN), the official climate source of the Government of Mexico, reported on the morning of this Thursday, October 16, that at least two states will register intense rains this day due to the formation of a possible tropical cyclone.
For today, the front system no. 7 will extend with stationary characteristics over the north of the countrywill interact with a trough at medium and high levels of the atmosphere, and with the subtropical jet stream, which will cause drop in temperature and strong gusts of wind in the mentioned region, in addition to the Mexican northwest, as well as heavy occasional rains in Chihuahua; and intervals of showers in Coahuila.
For its part, the entry of humidity from the Caribbean Sea and the slow advance of tropical wave no. 38, will generate very heavy occasional rains in Quintana Roo and Yucatán; and strong points in Campeche.
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A low pressure channel over the Sierra Madre Oriental, the flow of humid air from the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea in the southeast, south and east of the national territory, as well as a cyclonic circulation at altitude, which will weaken over the course of the day, will promote heavy occasional rains in Tabasco and Veracruz; intervals of showers in Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas; and isolated rains in areas of San Luis Potosí.
A low pressure area with a probability of cyclonic development off the Mexican southern Pacific coast will maintain the probability of intense occasional rains in Chiapas and Oaxaca; and very strong punctuals in Guerreroin addition to high waves on the coasts of said states.
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The entry of humid air from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, low pressure channels in the interior of the country, as well as atmospheric instability over the center of the Mexican Republic, will cause very heavy occasional rains in Nayarit and Jalisco; strong points in Sinaloa, Durango, Colima and Michoacán; intervals of showers in Puebla, Morelos, Mexico City and the State of Mexico; and isolated rains in areas of Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Querétaro and Zacatecas.
Intervals of showers and occasional strong to intense rains will be accompanied by electric shocks and could be accompanied by hail.
Rain forecast for today, October 16, 2025:
| Very heavy rains with intense occasional events (75 to 150 mm): | Oaxaca (regions: Sierra Sur, Costa and Istmo) and Chiapas (regions: Fronteriza, Sierra and Soconusco). |
| Heavy rains with very strong spots (50 to 75 mm): | Nayarit (coast), Jalisco (coast), Guerrero (east and southeast), Yucatán (northeast) and Quintana Roo (north and east). |
| Showers with occasional heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): | Sinaloa (south), Chihuahua (south and northeast), Durango (north and west), Colima (north and coast), Michoacán (coast), Veracruz (regions: Papaloapan, Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca), Tabasco (west) and Campeche (south). |
| Shower intervals (5 to 25 mm): | Coahuila (northwest), Nuevo León (center and south), Tamaulipas (south), State of Mexico (southwest), Mexico City (south), Morelos (north) and Puebla (regions: Tehuacán-Sierra Negra and Valle de Atlixco-Matamoros). |
| Isolated rain (0.1 to 5 mm): | Baja California Sur, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Querétaro, Hidalgo and Tlaxcala. |
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Heavy to intense rain could reduce visibility, increase river and stream levels, and cause ponding, landslides and flooding.
Strong gusts of wind could cause trees and billboards to fall.
With information from the National Meteorological Service
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