Iranian officials are increasingly worried about a potential US attack after protests spread nationwide and sparked a bloody crackdown.
America has moved the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided missile destroyers into the region, which can be used to launch attacks from the sea.
It remains unclear what US President Donald Trump will decide about using force, though he laid down two red lines – the killing of peaceful demonstrators and the possible mass execution of detainees.
Trump wrote on Truth Social yesterday: ‘Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties.’
A conflict is easy to start – but hard to control
As fears of a US attack in Iran mount, Dr Bamo Nouri, a professor in International Relations at the University of West London, told Metro that a conflict launched by the US would be easy to start – but hard to control.
‘Washington could carry out precision strikes on military or nuclear targets, but Iran’s response would almost certainly be indirect and regional – using missiles, regional partners, cyber operations and maritime pressure rather than conventional force-on-force conflict,’ he explained.
‘This is not Iraq in 2003. Iran has spent over four decades preparing not to defeat the United States, but to survive it.’
Dr Nouri argued that the danger is not a deliberate decision to go to war, but escalation by miscalculation – saying even a limited strike could trigger a larger conflict than intended.
Regional disruptions cause worldwide inflation
Disruption in the region could cause oil prices to skyrocket, inflation to increase and spark political pressure far beyond the Middle East, experts have warned.
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor at SOAS, whose family relates to Karim Khan-e Zand, Persia’s dynastic rulers who unified the country in the 18th century, told Metro gas and oil supplies are the tip of the iceberg.
‘Moreover, it would further deteriorate an already volatile regional security situation, as US allies housing US military could be targeted in response to an unprovoked US attack on Iran,’ he added.
Dr Nouri added: ‘This why current US deployments and rhetoric are better understood as coercive signalling rather than preparation for invasion.
‘The US can threaten war with Iran – but it cannot afford the war that would follow.’
A ‘transition’ to democracy after targeted strikes
Dr Dafydd Townley, senior teaching fellow in International Security at the University of Portsmouth, previously told Metro that Trump sees Iran as a major destabilising factor in the Middle East, which could explain his desire to get involved.
‘He certainly wants to have a more pro-Western or Western-leaning government in place,’ Dr Townley said.
‘But it may be more beneficial to the United States to pursue non-military interventions, such as technological or diplomatic support for the protesters.’
If the US were to conduct precision strikes, wiping out key military and governmental points, it could pave the way for pro-democracy protestors to take control.
Another scenario is the Iranian regime collapsing, but the IRGC military retaining control of the population, which could end in more bloodshed.
Trump’s ‘Armada’ explained – could it be attacked by Iran?
The USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying warships have arrived in the Middle East on a mission to ‘promote regional security and stability’, according to the US Central Command.
The strike group was in the Indian Ocean, Central Command said, and not in the Arabian Sea, which borders Iran.
It will bring thousands of additional service members to the region, which has not had a US aircraft carrier since the USS Gerald R Ford was ordered in October to sail to the Caribbean as part of a pressure campaign on then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Iran promised that its finger was ‘on the trigger’ in case the US attacks – but the military in the country is no match for the US armed forces.
However, the multiple US bases dotted in the region could be a target for Iranian ballistic missiles.
There’s also a chance Iran could target US allies in the region – including Jordan, Israel, and others.
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