Will the Doha negotiations defuse the crisis between Afghanistan and Pakistan? | policy

All eyes are on the Qatari capital, Doha, as it awaits the arrival of a high-level Afghan delegation headed by Defense Minister Muhammad Yaqoub Mujahid to discuss the ceasefire issue and the growing tension with Pakistan.

From the point of view of the writer and researcher in Afghan affairs, Abdul Jabbar Bahir, the Minister of Defense heading an Afghan negotiating delegation is considered a message confirming Afghanistan’s seriousness in dealing with the crisis militarily.

Also, the letter includes studying the Pakistani accusations and determining their truth, and whether they are an attempt to distort the image of Afghanistan and its government.

Bahir stressed – during his speech on the “Beyond the News” program – that Afghanistan pledged in the February 2020 agreement with the United States not to be a haven for terrorism, indicating that the Afghan government will raise the presence of ISIS elements in Pakistan and expel them or hand them over to Kabul.

Mutual accusations continue between Islamabad and Kabul regarding supporting armed groups, as Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harboring armed groups, while Kabul denies these accusations.

Security guarantees

In the same context, security affairs expert Akhtar Ali Shah said that the State of Qatar has excellent relations with the two countries, and its mediation may lead to a solution.

But the matter depends – according to Ali Shah – on the ability of the Afghan side to control the organizations that it described as “terrorist” based on the border, and not to use the territory of Afghanistan as a launching pad to threaten Pakistan.

He expressed his conviction that security guarantees are the most important thing for resolving the crisis, otherwise “the tensions will continue,” stressing that the matter depends on “the seriousness of the Afghan government and stopping activities on the border,” as it is then possible to talk about peace and a lasting truce.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had expressed his country’s readiness for dialogue with Afghanistan to resolve their differences if Kabul agreed to meet Pakistani conditions.

According to Bahir, Afghanistan is ready to provide security guarantees if the Pakistani accusations are credible, stressing that Qatari mediation may help resolve and settle the crisis.

Expectations and hopes

In light of this tense scene, the escalation of the conflict makes the various parties lose and threatens the stability of the region, says Marvin Weinbaum, senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, stressing the importance of things not getting out of control.

According to Weinbaum, expectations do not indicate a complete peace, but it is important to reduce the escalation and maintain a long truce “waiting for the outcomes of the negotiations and the pressure of allies and partners.”

He stressed that the two countries have enough problems and dilemmas, expecting the success of the negotiations in Doha. He also did not rule out that China and the United States would play a role in ending the escalating tension between Kabul and Islamabad.

On October 9, there were reports of an air strike carried out by Pakistani fighters on Kabul and the Marga area in Paktia province, bordering Pakistan, and the Afghan authorities held Islamabad responsible.

Islamabad says that Pakistani Taliban militants are carrying out operations from inside Afghanistan, which Kabul denies.

On Sunday, Afghanistan announced the cessation of its “retaliatory” operations against Pakistan by midnight on Saturday, in response to a request from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but the clashes renewed on Tuesday, before the two countries announced on Wednesday that they had agreed to a 48-hour truce.